Statistical Analysis based on Stolen Reports as of February 20, 2005
By John Rosen
The MAJOR categories were:
If the several flutes/headjoints stolen were of the same make, then all but one were scored as REPEATs. (If you lost both of your Brannen-Coopers while playing at Carnegie Hall, then one of the flutes was categorized as a REPEAT, and the other as taken during a PERFORMANCE.)
Flutes/headjoints of different makes that were stolen together were NOT categorized as repeats. (If the thief also took your Bundy while you played at Carnegie, then the theft of the Bundy was counted separately, with the same PERFORMANCE code as the first Brannen-Cooper.)
The reason for my failure to code flutes of a different feather as REPEATs is that there was no practical way to pair flutes of different makes that were stolen together. Example:
According to Larry's list, Sir James lost 5 flutes in Switzerland: 4 Muramatsu's and one Sheridan. I scored this single theft as 2 TRAVELs (first Muramatsu and the Sheridan) and 3 REPEATs (the other three Muramatsu's).
The results below show that thefts categorized as REPEATs were ignored in the analysis.
Larry's list has 365 thefts of which 34 thefts were scored as repeats, leaving 331.
No information about location/type of theft was given for 147 flutes. One theft occurred either from an office or a car; for simplicity, I ignored it as well (I didn't want to deal with the ambiguity). That left 183 flute thefts; and so 183 is the denominator used in the percentages given below.
train-8 (all or most in Europe)
Home, school, and travel. That's where/when flutes are taken. Travel is especially high-risk, because most of us spend much more time at home or school than traveling.
As a result of these statistics, I will:
-continue to keep physically attached to any flute I'm traveling with; leaving a flute in a car is a particularly risky activity
-be careful when I go to the local university for lessons. I will NOT leave the flute in a practice room without me, nor willI put it in any locker that isn't bomb-proof.
-keep paying the insurance premiums.
Let's be careful out there!
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